According to the World Health Organisation’s definition, life expectancy at birth is “[the] average number of years that a newborn is expected to live if current mortality rates continue to apply. Life expectancy at birth reflects the overall mortality level of a population. It summarizes the mortality pattern that prevails across all age groups - children and adolescents, adults and the elderly”1. According to the World Bank, “[i]t reflects the health of a country's people and the quality of care they receive when they are sick”2. In this SMC Report, GDP per capita has been used as a measure of societal progress to reflect its effect on life expectancy at birth for the OIC Member Countries although there is a debate going on within the initiative of measuring the progress of societies to go beyond GDP to produce measures of societal progress, because there is still a long path to go to reach a consensus on the common measures of societal well being3. For the analysis, the data for life expectancy at birth and GDP per capita with current prices cover a period between 1970 and 2007 and in this report analysis for every ten years period is made with an overall summary of the whole period at the end of the report.
1970
In 19704 , all of the OIC Member Countries with available data5 had a life expectancy at birth less than 67 years, with the exception of Albania with a life expectancy at birth of 67.1 years. On the other hand, for the same countries, GDP per capita with current prices was less than 4,800 USD, with the exception of Qatar with a GDP per capita of 4,841 USD. Except, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar and UAE the remaining OIC Member Countries with available data had a GDP per capita less than 2,000 USD. Taking these facts into consideration, in this SMC report 67 years of life expectancy at birth and 4,800 USD of GDP per capita will be taken as threshold points through the whole analysis.
For our starting point in time, an interesting realisation is that although Albania, Bahrain, Brunei, Lebanon, Malaysia and Suriname had a GDP per capita less than 2,000 USD, the life expectancies at birth in these OIC Member Countries were over 60 years [SMC - 1].
1970-1980
During the period between 1973 and 1979, the increasing oil prices improved the income level of the oil exporting OIC Member Countries. By 1980, this trend resulted in surpassing the 1970 values of both life expectancies at birth and GDP per capitas for the Gulf Countries6 indicating that they reflected the improvements in their income levels on societal progress. However, for other OIC Member Countries GDP per capita levels were below 2,500 USD and these slight increases in income levels reflected to societal progresses of these countries by a little improvement in their life expectancy at birth levels [SMC - 2].
In the period, life expectancies at birth of the Gulf Countries ranged between 60 and 71, and their GDP per capita ranged between 5,000 USD and 35,000 USD. Brunei, Gabon and Libya were the only OIC Member Countries other than the Gulf Countries which both increased their levels of life expectancy at birth and GDP per capita from 1970 to 1980. Especially, Brunei reached a life expectancy at birth level of 71 and its GDP per capita was 24,472 USD in 1980. On the other hand, within these 9 OIC Member Countries a relatively weaker relation between life expectancy at birth and GDP per capita can be observed for Gabon, Libya, Oman and Saudi Arabia, where their life expectancy at birth levels remained less than 67 years in 1980 [SMC - 3]. Another interesting finding for the period is that although Albania, Lebanon, Malaysia and Suriname had a GDP per capita still less than 2,500 USD in 1980, they managed to reach or surpass the life expectancy at birth level of 67 years of the 1970
[SMC - 4].
1980-1990
The trend of increasing oil prices ended by the end of 1980s. The first indications of the World Oil Glut – an outcome of the economic slow-down in the developed countries – were observed in 1982. The World Oil Glut led to a sharp decrease in world oil prices which resulted in decreasing GDP per capita levels of the previously analyzed 9 OIC Member Countries of the period 1970-1980, namely the Gulf Countries and Brunei, Gabon and Libya. The highest GDP per capita level of 35,000 USD in 1980 decreased to 18,000 USD in 1990. However, Bahrain, Brunei, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE maintained their life expectancy at birth over 67 years during the period and the life expectancy at birth in Libya together with Oman and Saudi Arabia surpassed over 67 years towards the end of the period whereas Gabon still had a life expectancy at birth below 67 years [SMC - 5]. This negative relationship of the period between life expectancy at birth and GDP per capita may indicate that improvements in the income level have longer effects on life expectancy at birth. The effects of the developments in GDP per capita of the period 1970-1980 on life expectancy at birth for the analysed 9 countries continues to be seen in the period 1980-1990 as well.
Despite the progress; Libya, Oman and Saudi Arabia hardly reached the life expectancy at birth values of Albania, Lebanon, Malaysia and Suriname, countries with lower GDP per capita and high life expectancy at birth levels [SMC - 6] .Due to data unavailability, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan can enter the scene only in 1990 with low GDP per capita levels; i.e. Kazakhstan less than 2000 USD, and Uzbekistan with Kyrgyzstan even less than 800 USD. Still they had almost the same life expectancy at birth values with Libya, Oman and Saudi Arabia [SMC - 7].
Algeria and Jordan are two particular countries which reflect the increase in GDP per capita to life expectancy at birth starting from 1970. For the case of Jordan, this improvement continues even after the decline of GDP per capita starting in the second half of 1980s again supporting the long run effects of development in income level on life expectancy at birth [SMC - 8].
1990-2000
The global economic outlook both at the beginning and towards the end of 1990s was not bright. The per-barrel price of oil increased more than 2 folds in 1990. Despite having a milder character and shorter period than previous oil crises, the 1990 oil price shock had macroeconomic effects which were on the same scale as previous oil shocks. The global economic situation also got worsened due to the Asian Financial Crisis that gripped much of Asia beginning in July 1997. Due to the crisis, global investors were hesitant to lend to developing countries which in return led to economic slowdowns in developing countries worldwide. The Asian Financial Crisis then was followed by sharp falls in the price of oil, causing a financial depression in OPEC Member Countries and other oil exporters. The sharp fall in oil revenues then triggered the 1998 Russian financial crisis.
The negative effects of this financial and economic turmoil on a worldwide scale during the decade can be realised on life expectancy at birth levels of the countries Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Turkmenistan, Uganda and Uzbekistan. The declines range from 0.3 years to 5.9 years [SMC - 9].
On the other hand, the group of OIC Member Countries both with life expectancy at birth and GDP per capita over the threshold values of the 1970, experienced increase in life expectancy at birth during the period. These countries are Bahrain, Brunei, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE [SMC - 10]. The group of OIC Member Countries with a life expectancy at birth equal to or over 67 years but with a GDP per capita less than 4,800 USD for the period-in-concern included Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Malaysia, Morocco, Palestine, Suriname, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey [SMC - 11].
2000-2007
During the period between 2000 and 2007, three more countries, Lebanon, Malaysia and Turkey included to the group which had a GDP per capita over 4,800 USD and a life expectancy at birth over 67 years [SMC - 12].
